Cargo Theft in the U.S.: The Fastest-Growing Method Doesn't Involve Breaking a Lock

Cargo theft losses in the United States surged to an estimated $725 million in 2025, a 60% increase from 2024. The total number of incidents rose 16% to 2,576 recorded thefts. And the projection for 2026 is another 13% increase, pushing the industry toward nearly 3,000 theft events this year.

Those numbers are alarming, but they're not the real story. The real story is in how the freight is being stolen. Physical theft (cutting a lock, breaking into a trailer at a truck stop, pilfering a pallet from an unattended trailer) still accounts for the largest share of incidents. But the fastest-growing method is something different entirely. It's identity-based theft, where criminals impersonate legitimate carriers, book loads through normal channels, show up at the shipper's dock with what looks like proper authorization, and drive away with the freight.

This method grew 35% year over year in 2025. It now accounts for roughly 1 in 10 cargo theft events. And it's the method that carrier vetting is specifically designed to prevent, because the entire attack chain depends on a broker or shipper failing to verify that the person claiming to be a carrier actually is that carrier.

Here's the cargo theft landscape in 2025, organized by what matters most for brokers and carriers:

Where Cargo Theft Happens: The Geographic Concentration

Cargo theft is not evenly distributed across the country. It's concentrated in specific states and, within those states, in specific corridors and metro areas.

California: Nearly Half of All U.S. Cargo Theft

California recorded 1,218 cargo theft incidents in 2025, representing roughly 47% of all U.S. cargo theft. The state's combination of massive port volume (Los Angeles and Long Beach are the largest port complex in the Western Hemisphere), dense warehouse districts, and extensive distribution infrastructure creates more opportunities for theft than any other state.

Within California, the geographic pattern is shifting. Los Angeles County incidents dropped 11% in 2025 as security measures in the LA basin improved. But theft activity dispersed to historically lower-risk areas: Kern County (up 82%) and San Joaquin County (up 44%). The thieves aren't leaving California. They're moving to the parts of California where security infrastructure hasn't caught up.

Texas: The Second Epicenter

Texas is the second-highest theft state, and together with California accounts for 58% of all cargo theft nationally. The Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, Houston, and the I-35 corridor between San Antonio and Dallas are the primary hotspots. Texas's position as a cross-border freight hub (massive volumes of goods moving between Mexico and the US interior) creates theft opportunities at every stage of the supply chain.

The States Where Theft Is Growing Fastest

The states with the highest absolute numbers aren't necessarily the ones where the problem is accelerating fastest. Several states saw significant year-over-year increases in 2025:

• New Jersey: Up 50%. The state's dense concentration of warehouses and distribution centers along the I-95 corridor makes it a target for organized theft rings operating in the Northeast.
• Indiana: Up 30%. The Indianapolis logistics hub handles a massive volume of freight, and theft activity is catching up to the scale of operations.
• Pennsylvania: Up 24%. The I-81 corridor and the Lehigh Valley distribution cluster are growing theft hotspots.

For brokers operating in these corridors, the geographic risk profile of a lane matters. A load moving through the LA basin, the DFW metroplex, or the NJ warehouse corridor faces higher theft exposure than the same commodity on a lane through the rural Midwest.

How Cargo Is Being Stolen: The Method Shift That Changes Everything

The way cargo theft happens has changed fundamentally in the last three years, and the change has direct implications for how brokers and carriers protect freight.

Physical Theft: Still the Majority, But Not the Growth Story

Pilferage (stealing partial cargo from a trailer, often while it's parked or during a rest stop) remains the most common theft method at 43% of recorded incidents. A driver parks at a truck stop overnight. Someone cuts the seal, takes 10 pallets of electronics from the nose of the trailer, and is gone before the driver wakes up.

Full trailer theft (stealing the entire trailer or the tractor-trailer combination) is less common but produces the highest per-incident losses. A loaded trailer left in an unsecured yard is hitched to a thief's tractor and driven away.

These physical methods are the ones that security measures (GPS trackers, trailer locks, secure parking, driver awareness) are designed to prevent. They're still the majority of incidents, but they're not where the growth is.

Identity-Based Theft: The Method Growing 35% Per Year

Deceptive pickup schemes (also called fictitious pickups or strategic theft) are the fastest-growing cargo theft method. These incidents increased 35% year over year in 2025 and now account for approximately 10% of all recorded cargo theft.

Here's how they work:

Step 1: The criminal obtains a legitimate carrier's identity. They get the carrier's DOT number, MC number, insurance details, and contact information from FMCSA's public database (all of this is freely available). Read our carrier identity theft guide for the detailed mechanics.

Step 2: Using the stolen identity, they book a load through a broker or directly with a shipper. The carrier's FMCSA record checks out because it belongs to a real, legitimate carrier.

Step 3: The criminal sends a truck to the shipper's dock. The driver presents paperwork that looks legitimate. The shipper releases the freight.

Step 4: The freight disappears. The criminal either sells the goods through a fence network or, in some cases, re-consigns the load to a different delivery address.

Step 5: The real carrier discovers the theft when the broker calls about a load they never accepted, or when the shipper calls about freight they never picked up.

This method is growing because it exploits the same vulnerability that carrier identity theft and double brokering exploit: the gap between verifying a carrier's FMCSA record and verifying the person claiming to be that carrier. The record is real. The person isn't.

Cyber-Enabled Theft: The Newest Vector

An emerging variant uses hacking and phishing to gain access to broker TMS systems or load board accounts. The attacker compromises a broker's account, identifies high-value loads about to be dispatched, and intercepts the load by contacting the shipper (posing as the broker) to redirect the pickup to their own truck, or by contacting the legitimate driver to "reschedule" the pickup while a fraudulent truck takes the load.

This method is still a small fraction of total incidents, but it's growing and it's concerning because it bypasses the carrier vetting process entirely. The attack happens after the load is booked, through compromised systems rather than through fake carrier identities.

What Gets Stolen: The Commodities Thieves Target

Thieves are not random. They target commodities with specific characteristics: high value per unit, easy to resell, difficult to trace, and in consistent demand.

Food and beverage thefts saw the largest category increase in 2025: 708 incidents, up 47% from 2024. The theory is that food is the easiest stolen commodity to liquidate because it can be sold through restaurants, grocery stores, and secondary distributors without the serial number tracking that electronics face.

If you're brokering high-value commodities (electronics, pharmaceuticals, automotive parts), the per-load theft risk is meaningfully higher than for general freight. Your carrier vetting process for these loads should reflect that elevated risk. Use our carrier vetting checklist for the full vetting workflow, and read our carrier onboarding guide for which verification steps are non-negotiable for high-value freight.

What Brokers Can Actually Do About Cargo Theft

The prevention strategies break into two categories: stopping identity-based theft (which is a vetting problem) and reducing physical theft exposure (which is an operational problem). The vetting side is where brokers have the most control.

Preventing Identity-Based Theft: The Vetting Problem

Identity-based cargo theft is a carrier vetting failure. The thief succeeded because someone failed to verify that the person booking the load was actually the carrier they claimed to be. Every identity-based theft has a failure point that proper vetting would have caught.

The single most effective prevention step: Call the phone number listed in FMCSA's records for the carrier, not the phone number the person who booked the load gave you, and ask if they accepted this load. This 10-second phone call catches the majority of identity-based theft attempts because the real carrier will say "no, we didn't book that load." Use our MC/DOT lookup, which shows the FMCSA-listed phone number alongside registration and authority data, so you can compare it against the number the caller provided.

Verify the truck at pickup. Require your shippers to check the DOT number on the truck door against the carrier you booked. If the DOT number doesn't match, hold the freight. This is the last physical checkpoint before the freight leaves the dock, and it catches impersonation attempts that passed the phone check.

Check for chameleon and fraud indicators. New authority (under 90 days), prior revocation flags, and company officers linked to revoked carriers are all indicators that the entity may not be what it appears. Read our chameleon carrier detection guide for the specific pattern-matching process and our new entrant carrier risk guide for the risk profile at each authority age milestone.

Reducing Physical Theft Exposure: The Operational Problem

Physical theft prevention is primarily the carrier's responsibility, but brokers can influence it through carrier selection and load planning.

Avoid overnight stops in high-theft corridors. If a load is moving through the LA basin, the DFW metroplex, or the NJ warehouse corridor, plan the transit so the truck doesn't park overnight in those areas with a loaded trailer. The majority of physical theft occurs while the truck is stationary, often at truck stops or rest areas in high-theft zones.

Require GPS tracking on high-value loads. Real-time visibility on high-value shipments allows you to detect route deviations, unexpected stops, and trucks that go dark. If tracking stops working or shows the truck in an unexpected location, escalate immediately.

Specify secure parking for overnight stops. For loads over $100,000 in value, specify that the driver must park in a secure, fenced facility with surveillance rather than an open truck stop. The cost difference is minimal. The theft risk reduction is significant.

Use covert tracking in addition to ELD. Criminals who steal trailers know to disconnect or disable visible tracking devices. A second, covert GPS tracker hidden in the trailer provides backup tracking when the primary device goes dark.

A Worked Scenario: How a $350,000 Electronics Load Gets Stolen Through Identity Theft

The setup: A broker posts a load of consumer electronics on a load board. 42,000 lbs, pickup in Ontario, CA, delivery to a distribution center in Memphis, TN. Value: $350,000.

What the thief does:

1. Finds a legitimate carrier (Acme Transport, DOT 2345678) with clean FMCSA records on the public database
2. Creates an email address that looks like Acme's (acmetransport.logistics@gmail.com instead of dispatch@acmetransport.com)
3. Calls the broker from a burner phone, provides Acme's DOT and MC numbers
4. The broker checks the DOT number. Active authority, clean BASICs, insurance on file. Everything looks good.
5. The broker books the load with "Acme Transport"
6. The thief sends a truck (not Acme's) to the shipper's dock in Ontario
7. The driver presents a BOL. The shipper loads the freight. The truck leaves.
8. The freight never arrives in Memphis. The thief sells the electronics through a secondary market.

Where the vetting failed:

• The broker checked the FMCSA record (which was real) but didn't call the FMCSA-listed phone number to verify
• The email was a Gmail address, not Acme's corporate domain
• Nobody at the shipper's dock checked the DOT number on the truck
• No GPS tracking was required for a $350,000 load

What would have stopped it:

• Calling FMCSA's listed phone number for Acme Transport: "Did you accept a load from our brokerage today?" Answer: "No." Theft prevented.
• Comparing the email domain (Gmail vs corporate): red flag caught
• DOT number check at pickup: truck didn't match Acme's DOT number
• GPS tracking: would have revealed the truck deviating from the Memphis route

Four prevention steps. Any one of them would have caught this theft. The thief succeeded because none of them were performed.

The Connection Between Cargo Theft, Double Brokering, and Carrier Identity Theft

These three fraud types share the same attack infrastructure. Understanding the connections helps you see that cargo theft prevention and carrier vetting are the same problem.

Carrier identity theft is the foundation. The thief acquires a legitimate carrier's identity from FMCSA's public database. Read our carrier identity theft guide for the 5 failure points.

Double brokering is one use of that stolen identity. The thief books loads and re-brokers them to unknown carriers, collecting the payment spread. Read our double brokering guide for the 14 warning signs.

Cargo theft is another use of the same stolen identity. Instead of re-brokering the load, the thief picks it up and steals it. Same identity, same attack chain, different endgame.

The vetting process that catches carrier identity theft also catches the cargo theft variant. The pickup verification process that catches double brokering also catches fictitious pickups. These aren't separate problems requiring separate solutions. They're the same vulnerability expressed in different ways.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much cargo is stolen in the U.S. each year?

In 2025, an estimated $725 million in cargo was stolen across 2,576 recorded incidents, according to CargoNet and Overhaul data. The average loss per incident was approximately $274,000. Projections for 2026 indicate a further 13% increase in incidents, potentially approaching 3,000 theft events.

Where does the most cargo theft happen in the U.S.?

California and Texas account for 58% of all U.S. cargo theft. California alone recorded 1,218 incidents in 2025 (roughly 47% of the national total), concentrated around the LA basin, Central Valley, and major port corridors. Texas hotspots include the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, Houston, and the I-35 corridor. New Jersey, Indiana, and Pennsylvania are the fastest-growing theft states.

What is a fictitious pickup in freight?

A fictitious (or deceptive) pickup occurs when a criminal impersonates a legitimate carrier, books a load under the real carrier's identity, and sends a truck to pick up the freight. The shipper releases the cargo believing it's going to the legitimate carrier. The freight is then stolen or diverted. This method grew 35% year over year in 2025 and now accounts for roughly 10% of all cargo theft.

What types of cargo are stolen most often?

Electronics lead at 22% of all thefts, followed by food and beverages (15%), home and garden products (11%), and automotive parts (8%). Food and beverage theft grew 47% in 2025, the largest increase of any category. Pharmaceuticals represent a smaller share but have the highest per-incident value ($500,000+). Copper and metal theft is growing rapidly due to rising commodity prices.

How do I prevent cargo theft as a freight broker?

The most effective prevention for identity-based theft: call the carrier's phone number from FMCSA's records (not the number the caller gave you) to verify they accepted the load. Require DOT number verification on the truck at pickup. For physical theft: require GPS tracking on high-value loads, avoid overnight stops in high-theft corridors, and specify secure parking for loads over $100K. Read our carrier vetting checklist guide for the full process.

Can carrier vetting prevent cargo theft?

Yes, for identity-based theft methods (fictitious pickups, deceptive schemes). These methods rely on a broker failing to verify that the person claiming to be a carrier is actually that carrier. Proper vetting, especially independent phone verification through FMCSA records and DOT number verification at pickup, catches the impersonation before the freight leaves the dock. Read our carrier identity theft guide for the specific verification steps.

Is cargo theft increasing in 2026?

Yes. Industry projections based on 2025 trends anticipate a 13% increase in cargo theft incidents in 2026, potentially reaching approximately 2,910 events. The dollar value of losses is expected to grow even faster than the incident count because thieves are increasingly targeting higher-value shipments.

Should I report cargo theft to FMCSA?

Yes. Report cargo theft involving carrier impersonation, double brokering, or fraudulent carrier activity to FMCSA's National Consumer Complaint Database at nccdb.fmcsa.dot.gov. Also report to CargoNet, local law enforcement, and the FBI's cargo theft program. Read our FMCSA complaint guide for how to structure the report so it gets prioritized.

Bottom Line

The $725 million stolen in 2025 breaks down into two fundamentally different problems. Physical theft (cutting locks, pilfering trailers, stealing parked trucks) requires physical security: GPS trackers, secure parking, route planning that avoids high-theft corridors overnight. Identity-based theft (fictitious pickups, deceptive schemes, stolen carrier identities) requires carrier vetting: verifying the person, not just the record.

The method growing 35% per year doesn't involve bolt cutters. It involves a phone call from someone who isn't the carrier they claim to be, a FMCSA record that checks out because it belongs to a real carrier, and a shipper who releases freight without verifying the DOT number on the truck.

One phone call to the FMCSA-listed number. One DOT check at the dock. That's what stands between a successful delivery and a $274,000 average loss. The data is free. The call takes 10 seconds. And the method growing fastest is the one those 10 seconds prevent.

Sources:

• CargoNet: Cargo Theft Losses Surge to $725 Million in 2025
• Overhaul: U.S. and Canada Cargo Theft Report
• FreightWaves: California, Texas Account for 58% of U.S. Cargo Theft
• Commercial Carrier Journal: Cargo Theft Rose in 2025
• ATA: Freight Under Fire - The Explosive Rise of Cargo Theft